04.05.2024

So a while ago i deposited 200 into a. sports bet account and then a couple. months later i received an email from. them saying that there were changes to. my account. and essentially i was banned from the. platform and betting with them. by that point i had turned my 200. initial deposit. into well over 8 000 and of course. i withdrew every single cent once i. heard that i've been banned. and that was just for my sportsbed. account so i also did this with point. spent tab. universe light brogues and a heap whole. heap of other bookies out there. now you're probably thinking that this. is some sort of getrich-quick scheme or. some sort of scam that. is all over the internet but it. definitely is not there's like. the one simple thing behind the strategy. that i've used. to bet on these bookmakers sites and. consistently make money.

Is definitely firstly not through luck. either i've been. placing probably like thousands of vet. by now but um i still managed to. consistently make money. and it's just one simple principle that. we've all learned in high school and. that is just. mathematics there's nothing else to it. yes mathematics is the entire foundation. behind this betting strategy. which is what's sometimes referred to as. arbitrage betting or. what i like to call it positive ev. betting firstly we need to try to remove. our perception of sports betting as. a bad habit and like a gambling. addiction kind of thing that. people will get sucked into and end up. losing a load of money so that is. actually probably true for. maybe 90 of the case but there are. people out there who. have figured out strategies to be able. to consistently beat them.

And firstly there's probably another one. out there. which is like just based on pure. analysis where you analyze sports. analyze maybe horses and like. be able to bet on ones that are kind of. underpriced. whereas this strategy that i'll be. showing today is all about the. mathematical side and i would say it's a. strategy that poses a lot less risk. and you can still consistently make. money by doing this. so let me explain the math behind. arbitrage betting. firstly let's go through an example of. how sports betting books. bookies actually make their money so. let's say you have a coin toss it can. either be heads or tails. and there's a 50 chance of it being. either one. now the sports betting books bookie is. allowing to bet on either heads or tails. and both of these prices are one dollar. and ninety cent odds.

So if you put in a dollar you get one. dollar 90 back if it is right. and you lose your one dollar stake if it. isn't so you either make 90 cents profit. which is 1.90 minus your initial dollar. or you lose the whole dollar if it isn't. right so let's say there's two customers. who decided to bet on this bookmaker. one person decided to bet on heads and. another person decided to bet on tails. and both of them were given odds of 1.90. so now if it's heads then the first. customer will make 1.90 back. and the second customer will lose their. initial dollar. so the first customers made 90 cents. profit while the second customer. has lost the initial one dollar they put. in so this has. made the sports betting bouquet ten. cents. and now let's say it was the other way. around and it was actually tails. then the second customer would make a.

Dollar ninety back. on their one dollar stake and the. other customer would lose their initial. one dollar so now again. the net profit for the bookmaker is one. dollar which they received from the. state that. the customer lost minus what they had to. pay out which was 90 cents. so effectively once again the bookmaker. has made 10 cents profit. so this is the way pretty much. bookmakers always make money their odds. are always underpriced. and the odds are not in your favor and. it's just like. gambling or betting in the casino where. the house always wins. it's the same for these sports betting. bookmakers um. their odds are always not the fair price. and you're always. basically paying more to um get these. odds well the odds generally should be. higher than what they're actually. offering you. and if you were to do this over the long.

Term of course the bookmaker. would eventually win and you would. pretty much always. end up losing so i said that the odds. are not in your favor when the. bookmakers are giving odds to you. so how do you actually work out the fair. odds and what they should be. so to calculate odds the formula is one. over the odds. equals the implied chances of it winning. so let's say heads and tails for a coin. toss it's 50 50. we all know that right. and then let's say if it's heads the. chance of winning is 50. which means one over the odds is equal. to 50. or 0.5 so that implies the odds is. two but the bookmaker is only giving you. a dollar ninety. so one over 1.90 is something like. 53 or 55 somewhere around there. and of course that's not the true. probability of landing on heads it's. less than that but that. make it seem like it's actually a high.

Probability but it's not. which means they're overcharging you now. this is when arbitrage betting comes in. arbitrage betting pretty much comes in. when the odds are in your favor. the whole concept behind arbitrage. betting is it's removed all the. risk because you've hedged it away and. this is where you can bet on one or more. outcomes. at the same time and regardless of the. outcome you're guaranteed to not. lose money you're not guaranteed to make. money but you're guaranteed to not lose. and in most cases you are going to be. guaranteed to actually win money. so going back to the coin toss example. let's say if you bet on heads. the odds were 1.90 but it was 2.50. and it's same for tails as well so both. these odds are 2.50 which is actually a. very good price. if you bet one dollar on heads and one. dollar on tails.

Either you get 1.50 if. um it's heads and you get 1.50 if it's. tails but you lose the dollar from the. other bet. so either way you've guaranteed yourself. a profit of 50 cents. so this is a way of guaranteeing. yourself a riskfree profit. and you haven't actually had a view on. the outcome and you've made money. regardless of the result whether it was. heads or tails. and of course like your guaranteed. profit can be even larger let's say. instead of betting one dollar. you bet a hundred dollars each side in. that case you'd be guaranteeing yourself. a 50 profit now we all actually know the. probability of a coin toss is 50. um either heads or tails and unless the. bookmaker was stupid or they made a. mistake and wanted to go bankrupt. they would never give you a price that. was under. uh so that was over two dollars so the.

Odds they'll give you will always be. less than two dollars because that is. where they have edge and that is how. they get you. so the example where i said the odds. will be 2.50 for a coin toss. would never actually happen but this is. where it gets interesting what about. all these sports events where the. probability of events happening. is not certain so no one actually knows. for example in the euros. france versus switzerland what is the. probability of france winning. some people might really like france and. think it's probably 80. whereas other people might think it's. probably close to a 60 or 70. like no. one knows. for certain and this is where different. bookmakers have. different views on their probabilities. and therefore offer you different odds. in regards to which team is going to win. or all the outcomes of the game for.

Example here you can see. france switzerland and draw results. and you can see that the odds between. france versus switzerland on the tab. bookmaker's site are a bit different to. what the odds you might get on the. france versus switzerland. um on the sports bookmakers site so. because of this difference we can find. better prices for each of these outcomes. in this case we will choose to bet on. france on tap. and we could choose to bet on. switzerland and draw on. sports bay but even then this doesn't. guarantee there will be an arbitrage. there actually needs to be quite a bit. of a skew in terms of these pricings. before you actually get to that. arbitrage level where you can guarantee. yourself a profit. so explain the outcomes and probability. of for example this situation. the total implied probability is one.

Over. each was odd so one over france win. odds plus one over draw odds plus. one over switzerland odds and that's the. total implied probability. in both cases this is greater than one. hundred percent. which means the bookmaker has the edge. and that extra amount. over the 100 is how much they're pretty. much taking off. um their customers now if you. for example tweak it and you instead of. using. all the odds on the same bookmaker but. choose the highest odds. for the different bookmakers depending. on the result each individual result. then you get something a little bit less. but it would still not be categorized as. an. arbitrage but now let's take a. hypothetical. example of a game between djokovic and. medvedev. let's say the first bookmaker thinks. it's again a 50 50. chance of djokovic or medvedev winning. and it's a very close game.

So your odds of medvedev and vodrokovich. are 1.90 and 1.90 for. both players whereas the second. bookmaker thinks djokovic is a strong. favorite. they're priced at 1.40 whereas medvedev. is priced. at 2.50 and once again for each of these. individual bookmakers. if you find the implied probability sum. it's again greater than 100. but what you can see now is if you. wanted to bet on medvedev. you would just bet on medvedev on bookie. number two. and you would bet on druckridge on. booking number one. because the prices are better on those. sites for the respective players to win. and then if you do this implied. probability calculation you get. something. less than 100 and this is where you can. get the arbitrage coming in. so there's some arbitrage calculators. online that you can use or you can just. make these in excel and it'll tell you.

If you want. uh unbiased arbitrage then you can bet. this amount on player 1 and this amount. on player 2 and you can guarantee. yourself this profit if these were the. odds or they can do a biased arbitrage. otherwise known as a no loss arbitrage. if you wanted the better odds. um for example you really believed in. medvedev you'd bet on. medvedev to win you'd make some money if. men would have won but. you still wouldn't lose even if djokovic. won at because you've hedged away some. of that risk. so you might be thinking yeah nah this. is too good to be true there's no actual. arbitrage opportunities out there. but because there's always events going. on like i live in soccer. tennis cricket rugby afl horse racing. dog racing there's always events going. on. there's always mispricings from all the. different bookmakers there's so many.

Bookmakers where you can take advantage. of their mispriced odds. and there's definitely a lot of money to. be made off of them each week. and it's all riskfree if you can do it. right but do remember this is. only the surface of arbitrage betting. and it's just the most basic foundation. and examples that i've used. you can get a lot more context to this. for example let's say when there's seven. horses in a race. or when you're doing multis and it gets. a lot more complicated than this. so i highly recommend you do your own. research before you actually put any. money into it. um there's not financial advice or. anything this is just. sharing a mathematical strategy to. demonstrate that. mathematics is probably something useful. that you want to learn if you. wanted to make money it's definitely a. viable option.

And it can also be very easy to make. mistakes. for example the odds might change really. quickly and suddenly you've lost your. arbitrage opportunity or you. have a betting limit that you didn't. realize like in their terms and. conditions they might say. you're only allowed to bet 200 at this. price. there's even been times where like i've. made mistakes myself like. this was early on when i started betting. i accidentally i thought i was betting. on one horse but i ended up betting on. another one. so i was cheering for it all the way i. thought it won and then in the end i. didn't i actually lost a few hundred. bucks from that. ultimately though if you were to pursue. something like this after you've done. all your hard work and all your research. there's only one problem that you're. going to be having and that is that.

You'll eventually inevitably be banned. from these bookmakers because you're. making too much money off of them like. for me on sports but i turned two. hundred dollars. what was an initial two hundred dollar. like deposit. into well of eight thousand dollars like. within a few months like that's probably. like over a thousand percent return on. investment and that is something you can. easily attain like that was. through no luck at all like it was just. i actually expected to make that much. um or around there like by that point. like luck is phased out after you've bet. so much like. luck is no longer a factor and it's just. how much you're expecting because. of your smart strategy of arbitrage that. you're playing. but yeah you will eventually be banned. but that by that point. um you probably would have made enough.

to like not worry or care about it. and move on to something else now like. this is just a oneoff thing where you. can. make some money have a good time learn. about mathematics and some betting while. you're at it. and then that's the end of it if you. enjoyed this content then please make. sure to give it a big thumbs up and. subscribe to the channel to not miss out. on my future content where i give more. money making tips and educational. content. as always take care and i hope to see. you guys in the next video