04.05.2024

A common error when you're a rookie in sports bets is thinking that in order to win . you must be more right than wrong betting, meaning that if you get it right more than 50% . you're already winning, when actually is not like that because you can be right a few times like 10%, 5% or even lower . and even then be winning in the long term or sideways, you can get it right very often like. 90% of the time or more and losing money. in this video we'll talk about this subject . you'll learn very important things about the sports bets world so get comfortable and pay attention. hi, my name is Javier López and after more than 7 years in the sports bets world. I created this channel to share my knowledge so you can win in the long term . so if you're interested in this content SUBSCRIBE and activate the notifications so you won't miss a thing.

This video is the fourth episode of the sports bets course that I'm recording . wich objective is to teach the essential things to start to understand how this business works. all this things I would have wanted to be taught and explained when I started . if after this video you wanna watch the rest of the recorded episodes and those I will record in the future . you will be able to do it through the playlist that I'll leave up here in the markers . and coming back to this video I wanna put you in a scenario so you can think what would you do in that case . if you want, before I give you the answer you can pause the video, go to the comment section and leave the answer you would choose . and this is the scenario: imagine that you're looking for a new tipster . to follow his predictions and you're considering 2 options.

But the only data you have from both of the is their nailing percentage. . the first one has a 60% of nailing outcome while the second one has a nailing percentage of 30% . knowing just this, which one would you choose? it would only seem logical to choose. the one who has the highest percentage, in this case the first one, right?. but if I tell you now that the first one is not able to win money in the long term . while the second one is, how could this be possible? if the first one gets it right more than the second? . this happens because in order to be a winner in sports bets in the long term . it's not enough to get it right a lot, you must understand that in this game other factors come in play . that are more important that nailing a lot or not. one of those factors is the rate . we all know it but we are not quite understanding it's importance..

A tip that can be important is that cuota in english means ODDS and I wanna talk about this right now. about how important is the odd we bet on. be very alert because we'll start to talk about numbers . and I don't want you to be confused. the first tipster once we study him a bit more has an average rate of 1,50 . wich means that he needs at least a nailing percentage of 66.66% to start winning. while the second tipster has a higher rate of 3.85 wich means that he needs much less to start winning . a 25,97% of nailing to start winning. check it, the first tipster lis losing money . because he is guessing right less than what he needs. he needs 66,66% an he is nailing 60% . while the second one is winning because he needs a 25,97% of nailing and right now it gets right 30% of the time . or in another way, a person who bets on a 1.50 average rate will need to nail 7 out of every 10 predictions to be a winner.

While another person who bets on an average rate of 3.85 would only need to nail 3 out of 10 predictions to start making money and with this I don't mean to say that betting on higher rates is better or easier to win but you must get this inside your brain: in order to win money it's not necessary to be more right than wrong what you have to do is nail more than the opposite of your average rate you can calculate this with a simple division: divide 100 by your average rate and maybe you're asking what your average rate is? for that you must keep always a control, a record of every bet you make. up here in the markers I'll leave a video where I teach you the excel I use although in this same course in a few weeks I'll record another video where we'll talk again about that excel that I still use until this day.

This is very important for you to understand, not only so you can develop profitable strategies . bu also to avoid getting scammed when you're looking for a tipster to follow . because many charlatans who pass themselves as tipsters leaving on the side that they don't mark the failures . lie wickedly and buy accounts so when a rookie finds them and access their Telegram or Twitter accounts . the rookies will see that this trickster has many followers and from there believe that the charlatans are the best at it . these guys bet almost always on rates below 2 and they do it because the odds are on their favor. probably they nail more that what they fail for betting with a rate inferior than 2 . but like I showed you it doesn't necesseraly mean that they end up winning money . and before moving on a small comment: the calculation in wich you divide your average rate will only work if your bets are made always with the same stake.

Meanig, if you always bet the same amount of money. if sometimes you bet more and others less. you must apply the same formula but with the balanced average rate . that sounds complicated but basically is to calculate the average rate but giving more value to the bets with higher stake . and giving less value to the bets made with less stake.. in order to do it you have to multiply the rate of each bet by that bet's stake . add it all up and divide by the stakes amounts. it might sound really difficult but there are many websites . that will allow you make it in a simple way. I'll leave the one you're watching now . in the description, and before moving on, the small remindig I always do. if you wanna learn . the best strategies, know every secret of the sports bets world . and discover the tools that I use myself just SUBSCRIBE clicking the button here below.

And remember to activate the bell so you won't miss a thing. . in the end sports bets are nothing more than an odds game, in fact a rate is actually and odd . and in order to win in the long term you must bet where you see that the odd . of that event happening is bigger than the odd that the agency gives to that event from happening . and how can you know the percentages that the agencies are giving to each of their bets?. simple, I've already told you. by making the same division I told you a few moments ago . divide 100 by the average rate. this way if we choose a game where the home team pays 2.15 . tying pays 3.25 and the visitor winning pays 3.60 and divide 100 by each . rate we'll have the odds that the agency estimates for this game. in this case the home team has a 46.51% of winning..

30.77% for both teams tying and the visitor team would have a 27.78% of winning. but take a look at this, if we add it all up we wave a 105.06% as a total result . when it should be 100% because we only have these 3 options . 1 of these 3 has to be right therefore the grand total should be 100% . why this happens? because here is the real gain for the agencies. that 5.06% . that surpasses the 100% is the OVERROUND and is the commission . thay the agencies win in that market and in that specific match or game . the overround is not always the same and changes according each agency, . but also according the sport, the competition, the game or the market . and with this the agencies always secure a profit for themselves no matter what . and along the overround we always find another term that is important to know.

The PAYOUT. if we said that the overround is the margin tha the agencies apply . the payout is the portion of the gathered money splitted among the gamblers . to know a market's pay out we just must take the number 100 and deduct the overround. wich will give us a value that normally goes between 90% and 97% . the higher the pay out is the less the agency's commission. and therefore our interst to bet there will be bigger. because since the agency has a lower commission the rates will be higher and therefore we will make more money if we guess right. I recommend to bet in agencies where the pay out is higher than 96% . I'm fully aware that if this is the first time you hear about all I'm saying in this video . all these things might be very confusing but don't worry because all of us have been in that spot.

In time you'll understand better. but you must know at least at the end of this video . is that the agencies always win thanks to this commission so it doesn't matter how the match ends, they win this commission . and they will always win. this commission varies according the agency, sport, game and market. . and we, the gamblers, are interested in betting in the place with the smaller commission . because that will make that we bet always on higher rates and therefore we win more money. another very important concept that you must understand wich I think is related to the rates so I'll tell you in this video . is the LIQUIDITY concept. when you hear that a sports event is liquid it means that is very well known. watched by many people and therefore many people bet on it. . the more liquid a sports event is the less overround is applied by the agencies and therefore the rates are better.

This is mainly because the more money enters the agency the less is the commission they need to make a profit. for instance: imagine you're an agency and that you wanna win 1.000 from a specified market. . you wanna win 1.000 Euros no matter what and you calculate that 10.000 EU will be coming in from all gamblers . to make those 1.000 EU you would have to apply a 10% commission, meaning, the overroud will be higher . but if you also wanna win 1.000 euros but you calculate that 100.000 euros are coming in . a 1% commission will be enough and therefore that overround will be lower because the game will be more liquid. and for last, now that you understand better the importance of the rates . a small advice when it`s time to follow a tipster. i'ts so important that you follow the tipster's bets. with the rates they recommend. on contrary it's possible you lose money even if the tipster is actually winning some.

if the tipster suggests a bet with a rate at 2 and you for whatever when you place the bet the rate is at 1.50 . the smart thing to do is not to bet at all because if the tipster had seen the bet with that rate . whe he was crunching the numbers he wouldn't have recommended it to you . to know until wich rate we should bet is very useful that the tipsters say the minimum rate recommendable. not all of them do it but personally I advice you to search for it because it helps a lot . letting us now wich bets to dismiss when it takes a little more time for us to place that bet. so if you liked this video it would be so great that you give me a "LIKE" . nothing else. best wishes and I hope to see you around here again. see you soon