04.05.2024

The biggest myth in sports betting is. that you can win if you have the magical. ability to pick out winners however no. one whether that be tipsters Sports. Experts or even bookmakers themselves. know who's going to win how I managed to. turn a 200 deposit into well over. sixteen thousand dollars through over a. hundred thousand dollars worth of bets. all comes down to a good understanding. of one thing and that is betting odds so. in this video in six minutes I'm going. to be teaching you everything you need. to know about betting odds and why it's. the fundamentals of every betting. strategy there are three types of odds. American decimal and fractional it. doesn't matter what odds you use. ultimately they are just a. representation of the probability and. therefore price which we can see in an. example let's take a soccer game between.

Bayern Munich and PSG there are three. possible outcomes Bayern Munich wins PSG. wins or the game ends in a draw American. odds are in the form of a positive or. negative number if it's a positive. number it represents how much profit you. can make if you bet a hundred dollars if. it's a negative number it represents how. much you must risk to win a hundred. dollars in profit in this case 125. dollars to win a hundred dollars profit. when buying Munich fractional odds. represent how much it would profit per. one dollar you wage are so if the odds. were four and five you would get 80. cents profit for each one dollar widget. or one hundred and eighty dollars return. in total on a 100 bet decimal odds. represent how much you would get back. which includes both profit and your. initial stake per one dollar uh so if.

The odds were 1.8 and if you'd bet a. hundred dollars you would get back one. hundred and eighty dollars there are. formulas you can use to convert between. the types of odds that you can see on. screen but you don't need to worry too. much about that it's more important to. understand how odds are just a. reflection of prices using an analogy. when you buy an item in the real world. such as a Ferrero chocolate there's a. price you pay and there's the price of. how much it's actually worth these. aren't always the same as for example if. you bought it at a convenient Union. store it would probably be a bit more. expensive in betting the odds you get. from a bookmaker represents the implied. probability of an event happening which. is proportional to the price you pay for. example if we look at the bet on Bayern.

Munich decimal odds of 1.8 means the. implied probability is one overly odds. or one over 1.8 which is an implied 55.6. chance of buy and winning we can think. of this as representing the price we pay. which is 55.6 cents if the odds were. higher the implied probability would be. lower meaning a lower price it's a bit. counterintuitive but as you can see. higher odds means a cheaper price now. what is the fair probability and level. price of the bet on Bayern Munich we can. get that from the market otherwise known. as a betting exchange which allows. people to enter prices they are willing. to buy and sell certain items and trade. with each other in this case the product. is bets on Bayern Munich as a result. based on supply and demand the odds and. therefore or the probability and price. eventually settled to a fair value which.

Is the fair odds of 1.895 the midpoint. of the Best Buy and Sell odds therefore. the fair probability is 1 divided by. 1.895 which is 52.8 percent this means. we can think of the fair price as 52.8. cents we can think of the bet on Bayern. Munich as the equivalent to that golden. Ferrero Rocher it is worth 52.8 cents. but the Sportsbook or bookmaker is. selling it to us for 55.6 cents and that. 2.8 difference is their margin or profit. so then what does a 100 bet on Bayern. Munich actually mean it basically means. you have bought 100 of Ferrero rochers. at 55.6 cents each meaning we have 180. chocolates each chocolate is only worth. 52.8 cents meaning our chocolates are. worth only. 94.99 and means we have lost five. dollars and one cent in value and that. is the profit to the bookmaker sold it. to us different overpriced amount.

Another important rule is that exactly. only one of the three possible events. for the game outcome Market can occur. which means the probability of these. events happening must sum up to one or a. hundred percent so either by a Munich. will win it will be a draw or PSG will. win only one and exactly one of these. things must happen we can see that some. of the buy and sell probabilities are. very close to a hundred percent and. their midpoint is 100.05 percent very. close to theoretical a hundred percent. continuing on with the analogy you can. think of Bayern Munich as the gold. Ferrero PSG as the brown Ferrero and the. draw outcome as a white Ferrero. chocolate the price of a collection pack. that contains one of each is equal to. exactly one dollar meaning the sum of. the value of the three chocolates must.

Also equal to one dollar however after. converting the decimal odds to prices we. can see that the bookie is selling all. the chocolates for all the possible game. outcomes above the fair price and. pocketing the difference while there is. luck involved in who actually wins this. game in the long term this means the. bookie is always profiting and their. profit comes from customers who are. paying for their beds at higher prices. or lower odds than what those are. actually worth in this case the total. implied probability is 106.5 percent. which represents a 6.5 profit for the. bookmaker depending on the market and. the bookmaker this profit percentage can. vary but it will always be in their. favor now as a pointer you can either. choose to not bet or you can choose to. accept the higher prices or worse than. fair rides that the bookmaker is giving.

You however if you want to win long term. you need to find Opportunities where the. price is cheaper and the odds that are. given to you by the bookmaker are higher. than what the fair rides actually are. this can come either in the form of. bookmaker mispricings or through the. form of special promotions that they. offer and these two things together form. probably a hundred percent of all the. profitable betting strategies out there. you can check out my other videos on. betting strategies or for more detailed. and actual betting models that I use you. can check out my tailored multipart. courses over on my website these run for. a few hours come with practice questions. and examples to help consolidate your. understanding and Target real examples. of bets that you can actually place on. certain Sports books and actually help.

you make some profit using the. bookmakers in your region if you enjoyed. this video or learned something then. make sure to give it a big like down. below and subscribe to this channel to. not miss out on the future betting tips. and tricks that I have lined up as. always take care and I'll see you guys. in the next video